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Trump's Tariff Policy Is a Complete Failure, Former US Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Fingar Says

Former United States Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Fingar defined US President Donald Trump's tariff policy as a "complete failure" during his keynote speech and a group interview with media, including Yicai, at the Shanghai Forum 2026, warning that Washington has become an unpredictable actor on the world stage.

The Trump administration suffers from several shortcomings, including its trade strategy, the erosion of the US credibility, and the growing constraints the White House faces, such as the Supreme Court and the upcoming midterm elections, according to Fingar, who is now a fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Fingar admitted to Yicai that he cannot determine the true intention of the Trump administration in introducing the tariff policy. "Unless his goal is to disrupt the global international trade order, the policy is a complete failure in terms of its effects," Fingar noted. "The original intention of the Trump administration in introducing the tariff policy was to reduce the US trade deficit, boost domestic manufacturing investment, and build a fair international trade environment for US enterprises, but none of these goals have been achieved."

In terms of actual effects, the tariff policy has not only failed to reduce the US trade deficit but also pushed up the prices of imported goods and increased US enterprises' production costs and US consumers' living costs, exerting a negative impact on the domestic economy.

"At the same time, the tariff policy has not driven the growth of domestic manufacturing investment in the US, because corporate investment decisions depend on various factors such as market demand and the business environment,” Fingar said. "Simple tariff protection cannot fundamentally solve the difficulties faced by the US manufacturing industry.

"Moreover, these tariff policies have not achieved the goal of fair trade," he added. "Instead, they have triggered global trade frictions and damaged trade relations between the US and its allies."

On Feb. 20, the US Supreme Court ruled by a six-to-three vote that the Trump administration's large-scale tariff hikes based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unconstitutional. Tax refund arrangements were also put on the agenda.

On April 20, the US Customs and Border Protection launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system to process refund applications, with payments expected to be issued within 60 to 90 days. The scale of illegal tariffs to be refunded is about USD166 billion to USD176 billion.

Even though the US Supreme Court has ruled that most of the tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration are illegal, it has not yet given up and plans to re-implement these tariff policies by changing the legal basis.

"However, the current international situation has also restricted the promotion of the tariff policy," Fingar pointed out. "The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed up the prices of global commodities, such as oil, gas, and chemical fertilizers, exacerbating inflationary pressures in the US.

"Under such circumstances, more and more people within the Trump cabinet have begun to oppose tariff increases, believing that this will further push up inflation and damage the US economy and the interests of the people," he added. "Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether the Trump administration will continue to implement the tariff policy in the future."

Phillip Swagel, Director of the US Congressional Budget Office, warned on April 27 that a series of recent changes in tariff policies may push up the federal budget deficit by a total of about USD1.1 trillion over the next decade. But due to the unclear policy direction, accurate calculation cannot be completed yet.